Getting down to the details

15 November 2008

Europe's climate negotiators are hopeful, writes Stephen Gardner. Barack Obama's election has given them a much needed optimism boost ahead of COP14 – the 14th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which kicks off December 1 in Poznań, Poland. This optimism was expressed on November 11 in the European Parliament, at the first major EU climate event since the US election. Lord Nicholas Stern, author of the British government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, said Obama made international agreement on a post-2012 global climate framework more likely. “We can hopefully look to some leadership from the US. Let's celebrate fixed-term presidencies,” Stern said, referring to the imminent demise of the Bush administration, which has spent the last eight years holding back international climate talks. Stern and others at the event called for a “Global Contract” to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. A future international climate framework, according to the delegates, should explicitly tie measures to combat climate change with measures to ensure development in emerging economies such as China and India, and in the world's poorest countries, such as many African nations. It would be fundamentally unjust, delegates said, if poor countries are told to curtail their economic development because of the environmental problems caused by wealthy countries in the last 200 years. The principles of such a global contract were agreed at COP13 in Bali, Indonesia. Broadly, they are that there should be a long-term carbon dioxide reduction goal in the region of a global 50 percent cut by 2050; that development of poorer countries should be encouraged by transfers of clean technology from the rich world, by halting deforestation, and by protecting agriculture and fisheries; that carbon markets should channel money from polluting industries in industrialised countries to more sustainable models of growth in the global south; and that adapting to climate change should be emphasised alongside its mitigation. But what would such a contract look like in detail? This is what climate negotiators want to focus on in Poznań, and then in the 12 months leading up to COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009, at which the EU hopes a climate deal to succeed Kyoto will be signed. Cap-and-trade Carbon markets will certainly be at the heart of such a deal. Obama's election reinforces this, as he has supported the principle of cap-and-trade for the US. A strong US cap-and-trade bill during 2009 would make a “tremendous difference” to international negotiations, Nicholas Stern told Eurocorrespondent.com during the November 11 European Parliament conference. Cap-and-trade schemes are under development in a number of other countries, such as Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland, and the EU's emissions trading scheme is already well entrenched. But the US is the key, according to Ottmar Edenhofer of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, speaking at the same conference as Stern. It is “really important to implement a transatlantic carbon market,” Edenhofer said. According to Edenhofer, the future global emissions trading structure will have to find a balance between a top-down approach with appropriate international governance, and a bottom-up approach in which countries and regions are able to manage their own carbon markets. Stern said new international institutions would be needed, such as a World Environment Organisation, to enforce a post-2012 deal. This would not be a “very large, well-armed international policeman,” but a “regulatory, encouraging structure,” backed up by the “court of public opinion,” which would pass judgement on non-complying countries, Stern said. Carbon markets are also a means of transferring money from the rich world to emerging economies and poor countries, as a stimulus for their sustainable development. The current system for this, the UN Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), awards carbon credits for emissions-reducing investments in developing countries, but is widely seen as open to abuse and questionable in terms of the real emissions reductions it achieves. The CDM may also encourage developing countries to not introduce their own emissions reduction policies. New ideas Climate specialists are starting to suggest reforms. The Paris based Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI) would like to see a move away from project-based awards of credits. One of IDDRI's ideas is to allow industrial sectors in developing countries to take on “no lose” emission caps. If they stay within the caps, they are rewarded with valuable carbon credits that can be sold on the future global market. But IDDRI recognises this is unlikely to be enough. Governments may not be keen for important sectors to take on targets, while for some sectors, such as agriculture, monitoring will be extremely complex. In addition, sectors need money up front for clean investment, rather than cash as a reward after the reductions have happened. The Institute therefore proposes that developing countries commit to sustainable development policies within an international framework. These should lead to emissions reductions that are “measureable, reportable and verifiable,” according to IDDRI. And if they do, rich countries will help pay. The main focus for such assistance will be green investment and forest protection. Anders Wijkman, a Swedish lawmaker who is the European Parliament's lead negotiator on EU assistance to developing countries for climate change adaptation and mitigation, said up to $100 billion will be needed annually for technology, and $50 billion for forests. An example of what can be done would be solar power investments in Africa, Wijkman said, adding that action “has to be linked to the traditional development agenda,” to ensure buy-in from poor countries. The amounts sound high but are “peanuts compared to what is at risk,” Wijkman said. For comparison, Britain alone spent $9 billion on international development in 2007/8. And Obama could galvanise the effort. “He understands poor countries because he lived there,” Wijkman said. “He cannot do miracles, but he will hopefully stimulate leadership” as the world tries to conclude a post-Kyoto deal. A version of this article was originally published by Climate Change Corporation.

 

< Prev		Next >