Awaiting the hot state

30 March 2009

A review of James Lovelock's latest work, The Vanishing Face of Gaia, A Final Warning. James Lovelock is to British climate science what Bobby Robson is to English football: a much-loved national treasure. Lovelock is qualified in part for this role by being considered in some quarters as being a bit eccentric. Lovelock was born in 1919, and in the late 1960s and 1970s developed Gaia theory – that the planet functions as a living organism and should be regarded and treated as such. His warnings about climate change have become increasingly apocalyptic, as the successive titles of his books illustrate: The Ages of Gaia, Gaia: the Practical Science of Planetary Medicine, The Revenge of Gaia, and now, unequivocally, The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning. In this latest work, Lovelock is not slow to blow a trumpet for Gaia theory, and to boast of its effectiveness as the basis for predictions about planetary climate regulation. He lists ten key predictions made on the back of Gaia, claiming that eight have been shown to be true, while the jury is out on the remaining two. The predictions concern the relationships between the oceans, the atmosphere, soils and forests – areas that are only now slowly starting to be understood. So Lovelock is someone who should be listened to, and when he says Gaia may soon 'retreat to a hot state,' and that the consequence of this will be by the end of the century a cut in the human population to around 15 percent of its current level, it might be wise to take note. Lovelock bases his pessimistic view about the future of humanity on observations of phenomena such as rising sea levels and melting ice. These are happening more quickly than the most pessimistic forecasts. When it comes to such observed phenomena, there is no good news. Lovelock writes, for example, that the extent of the melting of Arctic sea ice in the summer of 2007 was "astounding," and similar distressing evidence of global heating can be expected in the future. No steady warming Lovelock also emphasises that climate change is not a steady warming that in principle could be controlled or mitigated like turning up or down a radiator, even if it were possible for policymakers to turn words into action. Change has started, we are locked into a dynamic cycle, and we may have to accept that the only response is to start adapting. Ice, for example, reflects heat back into space, but now it has started melting, more heat is absorbed, which accelerates the melting, which means the capacity to reflect sunlight is diminished even more... No long-term greenhouse gas emission mitigation policy is going to take effect in time to stop this. But The Vanishing Face of Gaia is also a book of speculation about what the consequences of this might be, and it is here that Lovelock somewhat contradicts himself. He emphasises that climate science should rely more on observation of the impacts of global heating, and less on modelling what the impacts might be in 20 or 50 years time. He criticises such modelling as being disconnected from the real world, and as failing to grasp the dynamic nature of Gaia. Yet he speculates on the future of humanity in a way that paints humans not so much as part of the system – and able to respond to changes in it – and more as helpless victims of the crisis to come. His warnings are serious. The main impact of global heating (a term he uses in preference to the gentler-sounding 'global warming') will be to disrupt agriculture and thus food supplies by making some areas barren, and by flooding others. Africa and Asia will be hardest hit, and food and water shortages and environmental pressures will become so severe that millions will be forced to migrate. The resulting pressure will bring crisis to the developed world. Lovelock is also speculating by portraying the British Isles, as well as some other parts of the world that will be less affected by global heating, as a kind of life raft for humanity. He even becomes misty-eyed and affected by a kind of nostalgic spirit of the Blitz when he considers how the British might handle the planetary crisis – by resolutely steering the life raft to the dimished hot state of the future. If the British, or anyone else, will really respond this way remains to be seen. But Lovelock's basic message is clear and alarming. It is that observed global heating-related phenomena, such as rising sea levels and loss of eco-systems, are underway, and are happening faster than anyone thought possible. Meanwhile, the political response, with its heart-warming belief in 'win-win' scenarios in which environmental sustainability will be coupled with economic competitiveness, has been laughable. Climate change is happening and probably cannot be reversed. But for the consequences we will just have to wait. James Lovelock (2009) The Vanishing Face of Gaia, A Final Warning, Allen Lane, London, ISBN: 978-1-846-14185-0 By Stephen Gardner.

 

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