The European Union has limited expectations for the forthcoming Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP14), which will attempt to build on the previous COP in Bali and make progress on an international climate deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, writes Stephen Gardner.COP14, which will take place in Poznań, Poland, will be "important" but unlikely to lead to major breakthroughs, primarily because of the political situation in the United States, a European Commission official close to the negotiations told Euro-correspondent.
However, the conference could lead to a "general agreement that things need to speed up" in 2009, said the official, who asked not to be named.
In addition, the EU would like to see a extra COP -- a COP14 and a half -- to take place in mid-2009, ahead of COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, at which the EU hopes a successor to the Kyoto Protocol will be finalised.
The main brake on progress at Poznań is that Bush administration officials will represent the United States, ahead of Barack Obama taking office in January.
"Obama has been making positive noises, but will play no role," in Poznań, the Commission official said. Meanwhile, the current administration "cannot take a clearer position" on the progress of negotiations in 2009.
Call for a shared vision
Although Poznań will largely be a "taking stock" exercise, the EU would like to see agreement on a shared vision for a future international climate deal, the official said.
This should include agreement that global warming should not result in temperature rises above two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and a pledge to cut global emissions by 50 percent by 2050.
Once these parameters are agreed, the international community can negotiate on how to ensure the world stays within them, the official said.
The discussions could be taken up at an extra COP in mid-2009, and possibly also taking place in Poland.
EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas has pushed for this, believing that it will help Obama's negotiating team "focus" ahead of the Copenhagen conference.
EU's big package
The Poznań conference takes place December 1-12, and thus will coincide with attempts to finalise the EU's own package of climate and energy measures for the post-2012 period.
EU member states have already agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. This commitment level will rise to 30 percent if a post-Kyoto international deal is done.
The EU also has targets for renewable energy to meet 20 percent of the EU's energy needs by 2020, and for 20 percent energy use savings through efficiencies, also by 2020.
However, the exact mechanisms for meeting these targets, and the precise split of burdens between poorer and richer EU countries, are currently under discussion between the European Commission, European Parliament and EU member states represented in the EU Council.
The EU hopes to conclude its climate package, which has many mandatory elements, by the end of 2008 as a feed-in to the international climate talks.
EU heads of state will meet in Brussels December 11-12 and could potentially adopt the package at that time.
If this happens, it could "give a filip to the negotiations" in Poznań, and send a "powerful signal," the Commission official said.
In the United States, meanwhile, Barack Obama has said he will radically depart from the Bush administration policy on climate change, by introducing a cap-and-trade scheme for emissions in the US, and by taking a proactive lead in international negotiations on global warming mitigation and adaptation.